'We are convinced' - but is this a comeback too far for Madrid?

"Anything tin happen."

Those were nan words of Real Madrid head Carlo Ancelotti, nan astir successful leader successful Champions League history, aft his side's 3-0 conclusion by Arsenal successful nan first limb of their quarter-final astatine Emirates Stadium past week.

The building is simply a shot cliche but, erstwhile it comes to 15-time champions of Europe Real Madrid and nan Champions League, it is often true.

However, erstwhile they return to nan transportation against Arsenal connected Wednesday they will person to do thing they person only managed erstwhile earlier successful Europe's top-tier tourney - travel backmost from a 3-0 first-leg deficit.

Declan Rice's sensational free-kick double and Mikel Merino's coiled onslaught made it advantage Arsenal heading into nan return limb astatine nan Bernabeu.

"If you look astatine nan crippled [last week] location is nary possibility," said Ancelotti astir a imaginable comeback.

"But cipher expected Rice would people 2 goals from set-pieces, truthful successful shot thing tin happen.

"The anticipation is debased but we person to effort 100%."

On 3 retired of nan past 4 occasions connected which Real Madrid person trailed aft nan first limb successful nan Champions League, they person fought backmost to scope nan adjacent information - against Wolfsburg successful 2015-16 and successful 2021-22 against some Paris St-Germain and Manchester City.

But Arsenal tin return belief from nan truth this is nan joint-largest shortage Madrid person ever trailed by heading into a Champions League 2nd leg.

The past clip they faced specified a task was against Borussia Dortmund successful nan 2012-13 semi-final, erstwhile Robert Lewandowski netted a hat-trick successful a 4-1 triumph for Jurgen Klopp's broadside successful Germany.

Real won nan return lucifer 2-0 successful Madrid, but Dortmund progressed to nan last connected aggregate.

In fact, nan only clip they person fought backmost from 3 goals down aft a first limb came successful nan European Cup against Derby County successful nan past 16 of nan 1975-76 edition, winning 6-5 connected aggregate pursuing a 4-1 conclusion astatine nan Baseball Ground.

A shortage of 3 goals aliases much has been overturned conscionable 4 times since nan European Cup became nan Champions League successful 1992.

Liverpool trailed 3-0 against Barcelona going into nan 2nd limb of their 2018-19 semi-final astatine Anfield, but stormed into nan last pinch 4 unanswered goals.

Deportivo La Coruna, against AC Milan successful 2004, and Roma, successful 2018 against Barcelona, are nan only different teams to person travel backmost from 3 goals down aft a first limb successful nan Champions League era.

But 1 squad person overturned a 4 goal-deficit - Barcelona successful nan crippled christened 'La Remontada' successful 2016-17 - when they hit PSG 6-1 astatine nan Nou Camp.

Stats institution Opta gives Arsenal an 89.7% chance of progressing to nan semi-finals, and Real person mislaid 5 games successful nan title this play - a tally that equals a nine record.

"Every azygous clip Madrid did a miracle, nan preview said it is not possible," said Guillem Balague connected nan EuroLeagues podcast.

"But connected this occasion, you are talking astir a squad that don't take sides well, location is nary architecture successful nan midfield, location is nary patterns. They dangle a batch connected nan individuals, arsenic always. They haven't sewage a capacity to react.

"There are truthful galore specifications that propose it is not imaginable for them to move this around, including nan magnitude of moving they do - they ran 12km little than Arsenal [in nan first leg].

"They are still not players who do nan activity defensively. They deliberation they tin conscionable move connected astatine immoderate infinitesimal and move immoderate crippled around, and I don't deliberation that's possible, not pinch this team."

As James Horncastle said connected nan EuroLeagues podcast, location are heavyweights of nan European crippled who are still backing Madrid to advancement - including Champions League winners pinch AC Milan Alessandro Costacurta and Zvonimir Boban, and erstwhile Madrid leader Fabio Capello.

"Amazing things hap successful football, astonishing things hap astatine nan Bernabeu," said Horncastle. "I cognize this Real Madrid broadside has injuries, it has flaws, it is not balanced.

"I was not amazed to spot successful nan Italian papers and connected Italian TV, that erstwhile they were asked to foretell who would scope nan semi-finals, 3 pundits - Costacurta, Boban and Capello - still refused to spell against Madrid.

"It still says a batch astir Madrid's estimation that it is not thing you tin return for granted that Arsenal will advancement astatine nan Bernabeu."

But nan omens are bully for Mikel Arteta's outfit.

Arsenal's triumph was nan 12th clip an English broadside person won by 3 aliases much goals successful nan first limb of a Champions League knockout shape tie, and each clip nan English broadside has gone done to nan adjacent round.

The Gunners besides person a bully grounds erstwhile starring aft nan first limb of a Champions League knockout lucifer - they person progressed from six of nan 8 ties they person won nan opening match.

Furthermore, they stay unbeaten against Real Madrid successful European competition, pinch 2 wins and a draw, and person not conceded a azygous extremity crossed their 3 meetings.

After nan first limb astatine nan Emirates, Real's England prima Jude Bellingham said: "One spot wherever crazy things hap is our house."

Speaking astatine Tuesday's news conference, Bellingham added: "It's a nighttime that's made for Real Madrid.

"A nighttime that would spell down successful history but besides thing that group are acquainted pinch astir this portion of this world. Hopefully we tin adhd different typical night."

No Champions League run epitomised that much than successful 2021-22, erstwhile Real pulled disconnected sensational fightbacks against PSG, Chelsea and past Manchester City successful 1 of nan astir unthinkable runs successful nan competition's history.

Last play they were minutes distant from losing their semi-final necktie pinch Bayern Munich earlier turning things astir pinch 2 precocious goals astatine nan Bernabeu.

In some of those campaigns, Ancelotti's broadside went connected to triumph nan competition.

"We cognize we're beardown astatine location pinch our fans," said goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois. "If we people 1 aliases two, quickly... I deliberation it's possible."

It is that 'never opportunity die' cognition that has served Real truthful good complete nan years.